Hillary Clinton garnered more than 800,000 votes from noncitizens on Nov. 8, an approximation far short of President Trump’s estimate of up to 5 million illegal voters but supportive of his charges of fraud.
Political scientist Jesse Richman of Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, has worked with colleagues to produce groundbreaking research on noncitizen voting, and this week he posted a blog in response to Mr. Trump’s assertion.
Based on national polling by a consortium of universities, a report by Mr. Richman said 6.4 percent of the estimated 20 million adult noncitizens in the U.S. voted in November. He extrapolated that that percentage would have added 834,381 net votes for Mrs. Clinton, who received about 2.8 million more votes than Mr. Trump.
“Is it plausible that non-citizen votes added to Clinton’s margin? Yes,” Mr. Richman wrote. “Is it plausible that non-citizen votes account for the entire nation-wide popular vote margin held by Clinton? Not at all.”
Still, the finding is significant because it means noncitizens may have helped Mrs. Clinton carry a state or finish better than she otherwise would have.Mr. Trump’s unverified accusation to congressional leaders this week, as reported by The Washington Post, has sent the issue skyward.
He apparently was referring to all types of fraud, such as the “dead” voting or multiple votes from the same person. But the thrust of his estimate appears to be that illegal immigrants and noncitizens carried the popular vote.
He returned to the issue Thursday in Philadelphia, where he spoke to congressional Republicans mapping this year’s legislative calendar.
“We also need to keep the ballot box safe from illegal voting,” the president said. “And, believe me, you take a look at what’s registering, folks. Take a look at what’s registering. We are going to protect the integrity of the ballot box, and we are going to defend the votes of the American citizen, so important.”
The mainstream media reacted to Mr. Trump’s assertion with derision. Liberal pundits said there is no evidence of fraud.
CNN’s Jake Tapper called it “a stunning allegation for which the White House is providing no evidence. And there is a reason they are providing no evidence — there is no evidence. It is not true.”
Esquire.com said, “The most bizarre lie of Donald Trump’s presidency so far is his claim of widespread voter fraud in an election he won.”
But conservative activists say the liberal media are ignoring evidence — that noncitizen voting is illegal and, thus, fraud. They say the Justice Department in the Obama administration was more concerned with preventing states from cleansing rosters of dead and inactive voters than in mounting any investigation into fraud.
“Most voters are never asked for voter ID, so it is dishonest to suggest that with the tens of millions of illegal and legal aliens here, there is no voter fraud,” said Tom Fitton, who heads the conservative watchdog group Judicial Watch. “If the key Old Dominion study results on the 2008 election are applied to 2016 — 1.41 million aliens may have voted illegally, with 1.13 million voting for Democrats.”
“A federal voter fraud investigation is long overdue,” Mr. Fitton said. “It would be a simple matter of analyzing voter registration databases against federal databases of aliens and deceased individuals. Why is the left afraid to even ask the questions? The jig is up.”
There does not appear to be any concerted postelection effort by states to take on the daunting task of checking voter rolls and ballots to verify citizenship. In some states, no ID is required to register and vote.
In the absence of detailed accounting, the only scientific way to make an estimate is by post-vote polling.
Mr. Richman relies on a one-of-a-kind poll: the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey. Every two years, a consortium of 28 universities produces a detailed report on voters and their views based on polling by YouGov.
Tucked inside the lengthy questionnaire is a question on citizenship status: A significant number of respondents anonymously acknowledged they were not citizens when they voted.
Three professors at Old Dominion University — Mr. Richman, Gulshan A. Chattha and David C. Earnest — took these answers, did further research and extrapolated that of a 19.4 million estimate of adult noncitizens, about 620,000 were illegally registered to vote in the 2008 presidential election. Using other measuring tools, they said, the actual number of noncitizen voters could be as low as 38,000 and as high as 2.8 million.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported in 2012 that there are 22 million noncitizens in the country. The group comprises illegal immigrants and people in the U.S. legally on a visa or permanent resident green card. Of this 22 million, 20 million were 18 or older, the U.S. voting age requirement.
Conservatives have long suspected that Democrats are tacitly encouraging illegal immigrants to vote. Liberal leaders have created “sanctuary cities” across the nation that refuse to work with federal immigration enforcement authorities.
President Obama was asked during the campaign last year if illegal immigrants had anything to fear from federal authorities if they voted in the presidential race.
“Many of the millennials, Dreamers, undocumented citizens — and I call them citizens because they contribute to this country — are fearful of voting,” he was asked on a Latino YouTube channel. “‘So if I vote, will Immigration know where I live? Will they come for my family and deport us?’”
“Not true, and the reason is, first of all, when you vote, you are a citizen yourself,” Mr. Obama said. “And there is not a situation where the voting rolls somehow are transferred over and people start investigating, etc. The sanctity of the vote is strictly confidential.”
Some conservatives interpreted Mr. Obama’s answer as a go-ahead signal, with his questionable assertion that voter rolls are off limits to federal investigators.
The WikiLeaks dump of Clinton campaign manger John Podesta’s emails contained one message on directing immigrants to vote. He said immigrants should obtain driver’s licenses and then attest at a polling place that they are U.S. citizens.
Maintaining Accurate Election Voter Registration Jury Pool Analysis for determining illegal voter registration: So going solely by the numbers of those called on for jury duty that responded, and responded "non-citizen" we have roughly 320,000 non-citizens. So in 2008, we had roughly 147 million registered voters in the US. At 1% that is 1.47 million possible non-citizen, illegal voter registrations based on the numbers, and based SOLELY on those that responded to jury summons SOLELY for US District courts which is obviously a much smaller population than those that were not summonsed and summonsed by State and County. 3-4 million is easily achievable.
As a side note, I hire workers for work done on military bases. Even though the workers know that they cannot work on base without being a US Citizen, they still tried. Base Security checks every person coming on base with a database of combined e-Verify, SSN-Name comparison, and their own proprietary methods. These people are prevented entry.
Trump's Enemy List Begins - Of Course, all lousy, loony, leftist, commie-bastard demon-crats Democrat Racists to Shun Trump
Not shown but skipping:
Judy Chu - CA
Ted Lieu - CA
Jered Huffman - CA
Katherine Clark - MA
Earl Blumenauer - OR
Adriano Espaillat - NY
Pramila Jayapal - WA
Mark Pocan - WI
Marcia Fudge - OH
The worst of them all: 1. Maxime Waters - CA
Rep. Maxine Waters: No Intention To Sit Down With Trump, Will "Fight Him Every Inch Of The Way"
2. Barbara Lee - CA 3. Luis Gutierrez - IL If he didn't have the most gerrymandered district in the USA, he would never of had this job --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Republicans on the Enemy List
These people openly didn't support Trump before the election, now they want jobs in the Trump administration. None for you assholes:
We the undersigned, members of the Republican national security community, represent a broad spectrum of opinion on America’s role in the world and what is necessary to keep us safe and prosperous. We have disagreed with one another on many issues, including the Iraq war and intervention in Syria. But we are united in our opposition to a Donald Trump presidency. Recognizing as we do, the conditions in American politics that have contributed to his popularity, we nonetheless are obligated to state our core objections clearly:
His vision of American influence and power in the world is wildly inconsistent and unmoored in principle. He swings from isolationism to military adventurism within the space of one sentence.
His advocacy for aggressively waging trade wars is a recipe for economic disaster in a globally connected world.
His embrace of the expansive use of torture is inexcusable.
His hateful, anti-Muslim rhetoric undercuts the seriousness of combating Islamic radicalism by alienating partners in the Islamic world making significant contributions to the effort. Furthermore, it endangers the safety and Constitutionally guaranteed freedoms of American Muslims.
Controlling our border and preventing illegal immigration is a serious issue, but his insistence that Mexico will fund a wall on the southern border inflames unhelpful passions, and rests on an utter misreading of, and contempt for, our southern neighbor.
Similarly, his insistence that close allies such as Japan must pay vast sums for protection is the sentiment of a racketeer, not the leader of the alliances that have served us so well since World War II.
His admiration for foreign dictators such as Vladimir Putin is unacceptable for the leader of the world’s greatest democracy.
He is fundamentally dishonest. Evidence of this includes his attempts to deny positions he has unquestionably taken in the past, including on the 2003 Iraq war and the 2011 Libyan conflict. We accept that views evolve over time, but this is simply misrepresentation.
His equation of business acumen with foreign policy experience is false. Not all lethal conflicts can be resolved as a real estate deal might, and there is no recourse to bankruptcy court in international affairs.
Mr. Trump’s own statements lead us to conclude that as president, he would use the authority of his office to act in ways that make America less safe, and which would diminish our standing in the world. Furthermore, his expansive view of how presidential power should be wielded against his detractors poses a distinct threat to civil liberty in the United States. Therefore, as committed and loyal Republicans, we are unable to support a Party ticket with Mr. Trump at its head. We commit ourselves to working energetically to prevent the election of someone so utterly unfitted to the office.
Ken Adelman David Adesnik Michael Auslin Mike Baker Christopher Barton Kevin W. Billings Robert D. Blackwill Daniel A. Blumenthal Max Boot Ellen Bork Anna Borshchevskaya Joseph A. Bosco Michael Chertoff Patrick Chovanec James Clad Eliot A. Cohen Gus Coldebella Carrie Cordero Michael Coulter Chester A. Crocker Patrick M. Cronin Seth Cropsey Tom Donnelly Daniel Drezner Colin Dueck Eric Edelman Joseph Esposito Charles Fairbanks Richard A. Falkenrath Peter D. Feaver Niall Ferguson Jamie Fly Richard Fontaine Aaron Friedberg Dan Gabriel Greg Garcia Jana Chapman Gates Jeffrey Gedmin Reuel Marc Gerecht James K. Glassman David Gordon Christopher J. Griffin Mary R. Habeck Paul Haenle Melinda Haring Robert Hastings Rebeccah Heinrichs Francis Q. Hoang Rachel Hoff Jeffrey W. Hornung William C. Inboden Jamil N. Jaffer Ash Jain Marc C. Johnson Myriah Jordan Robert G. Joseph Tim Kane Kate Kidder Robert Kagan Rep. Jim Kolbe David Kramer Stephen Krasner
Matthew Kroenig Frank Lavin Philip I. Levy Philip Lohaus Mary Beth Long Peter Mansoor John Maurer Matthew McCabe Bryan McGrath Richard G. Miles Paul D. Miller Charles Morrison Michael B. Mukasey Scott W. Muller Lester Munson Andrew S. Natsios Michael Noonan Tom Nichols John Noonan Roger F. Noriega Stephen E. Ockenden John Osborn Robert T. Osterhaler Mackubin T. Owens Daniel Pipes Everett Pyatt Martha T. Rainville Stephen Rodriguez Marc A. Ross Nicholas Rostow Michael Rubin Daniel F. Runde Benjamin Runkle Richard L. Russell Andrew Sagor Kori Schake Randy Scheunemann Gary J. Schmitt Gabriel Schoenfeld Russell Seitz Kalev I. Sepp Vance Serchuk David R. Shedd Gary Shiffman Kristen Silverberg Michael Singh Ray Takeyh Jeremy Teigen William H. Tobey Frances F. Townsend Jan Van Tol Daniel Vajdich Ruth Wedgwood Albert Wolf Julie Wood Dov S. Zakheim Roger Zakheim Sam Zega Philip Zelikow Robert B. Zoellick Laurence Zuriff
Number of Signatories: 122
The statement above was coordinated by Dr. Eliot A. Cohen, former Counselor of the Department of State (2007–8), and Bryan McGrath, Managing Director of The FerryBridge Group, a defense consultancy. They encourage other members of the Republican foreign policy and national security communities wishing to sign the declaration to contact them.